股市隨筆

        今天共有兩篇網誌,標題是「股市隨筆」及「迷死人的故事 ( 32 )」。

        昨天恒指升299點,成交796億。上證指數升35點,成交2251億。

        A股近兩天都大升,港股跟隨,美股也反彈多日,這一次的調整已幾乎收復失地。港股自「佔中」以來的跌幅也已全部收復,港股又站到近24000點的水平,在這個水平上升跌的機會似乎均等。

        昨天跟一位任職基金經理的朋友午飯便餐,他告訴我恒指下跌1000多點,他的股票組合才跌了0.2%,我很驚訝,他解釋給我聽,基金持股大部份是二、三線股,成份股不到10%,如果揸太多成份股,就不可能回報跑贏大市。我問揸太多二、三線股豈不是很危險?他告訴我他們有研究團隊,資訊收集團隊,所有他們有投資的二、三線股,不但每日有人收集相關的公開資訊,更會派專人作公司訪問,甚至派人去有關公司廠房門口點算物流流量,所以說基金經理也不易為,他們投資的第一要則是不能踩中地雷,以前信用有瑕疵的或有懷疑的公司,立即在買入名單除名,我們散戶很難做到。

        幾家大的內銀以及三桶油都宣佈了業績,內銀業績都在預料之中,盈利增長都是單位數,壞賬有上升也不是不可接受,我看季度業績影響力不大,要看年度業績,要看派息能否維持才是關鍵。

        三桶油中中海油最要注意,它沒有下游業務,所以原油價格對它盈利影響特別大,第三季它的實現油價是98美元/桶,現在國際油價跌到80美元/桶,它的業績一定非常難看,現價雖比高峰跌了很多,但很可能低處未算低,假定油價90美元/桶是它的盈虧打和點 (中海油的勘探及開採成本不低,因新井離岸越來越遠),那麼第四季它虧本也不令人意外,而這次油價下跌似乎不是短暫的調整,油價很可能長期低沉。

3 responses to “股市隨筆

  1. 請問先生可否分享一下,何以認為油價可能長期低沉?會是$80樓下?

    小弟之前"直覺"認為油價不會長期低沉,所以今天見中海油跌的多,排隊要買,只是最後還是沒做成.

  2. WH Group (288 HK)

    with Lijun Guo (CFO)

    Key takeaways from Credit Suisse:

    1. The disappointing 3Q14 result was due to: (1) production delay (for both technology innovation/upgrade for old capacity and new greenfield plants; this dragged down 3Q14 sales by 2-3%); (2) slowing end-demand (usually holiday sales for Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is 20-30% higher than normal days, but this didn’t happen in Sept 2014, given the on-going anti-corruption campaign); and (3) Rmb96mn of government grants delayed from 3Q14 to 4Q14 due to timing of audit.

    2. Management expects a stronger 4Q14 vs 3Q14, due to (1) certain old facility’s innovation work is to complete in 4Q14 and start to contribute production; and (2) 4Q normally is a stronger season vs 3Q. However, the overall softening consumption sentiment is unlikely to have a meaningful change in 4Q14-1H15.

    3. Management is confident to deliver positive YoY growth in 2014 sales and earnings, but didn’t quantify the growth. For the next 10 years, management targets to add China downstream capacity of 200k tons/year and China upstream capacity of 3m heads/year, to ultimately reach the target of 4 mn ton and 60 mn head in 2025.

    4. SFD is to report 3Q14 on 7 Nov, 9am EST. Management thinks the US operation is on the right track.

  3. Goldman view on WH Group

    China 3Q14 below GSe, but not enough to break value story; Buy

    What’s changed
    WH Group’s China subsidiary Shuanghui (c.49% of group OP) reported 3Q
    results below GS expectations after market on October 24th. 3Q14 sales
    and OP fell 0.7%/11.9% YoY, respectively, driven largely by weak branded
    pork product sales/margins. Upstream fresh pork saw a sequential
    slowdown in slaughter volumes vs 1H14, but margins remained intact,
    despite higher live hog prices. Shuanghui’s 3Q14 sales/OP of Rmb12.1bn
    (US$1.96bn) and RMB1.2bn (US$196mn) made up 40%/42% of our 2H14E
    forecasts vs 3Q13 sales/OP being 49%/52% of 2H13. As overall weakness in
    China Staples consumption (including branded pork products) looks set to
    stay in 2H14 and some new plants are experiencing delays, we cut our
    China NPAT by 9%/12%/16% in 2014/15/16E, leading to a 5%/6.5%/9.3%
    downward revision to group NPAT. We retain Buy as we continue to see
    strong consolidation opportunities in China’s pork industry. Our revised
    12-month TP of HK$8.00/sh (from HK$8.60/sh) implies 29% upside.
    Implications
    Fresh pork: sales grew 6% YoY, (volumes +7%; ASP -1% on lower yoy live
    hog prices). Slaughter volume growth of 6.2% is a sequential slowdown
    from 17%/22% in 2013/1H14 but China’s industry slaughter volumes also
    saw a downturn since May 2014. We revise our FY14E volume growth
    from 25% to 15%, implying 8% growth in 2H14. Branded pork products:
    Sales fell by 6% YoY (-3.7% volume; -2.4% ASP). Mgmt cited new project
    delays (until 1H15) and restructuring of the existing portfolio as reasons.
    As such, we cut volume growth forecast in FY14/15E to 1%/5% vs previous
    5%/10%, implying -1.3% volume growth in 2H14. We also revise profit/ton
    from US$426 to US$401 reflecting lower ASP and higher marketing cost.
    Valuation
    2015E EV/EBITDA based SOTP (unchanged) 12-m TP implies 14.5x 2015E P/E.
    Key risks
    Worse than expected delays in product upgrades, pork price inflation.

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